The remaining majority of the dollars would come from estimated payments. Howgate said other non-withholding revenue sources like capital gains are based on the prior year’s tax liability, pushing out the date by which a clear picture of surtax money might emerge.

“You are unlikely to see much surtax activity in estimated payments for the remainder of this calendar year, and in fact, the first scheduled payment where we would reasonably expect to see most of our tax revenue come in is the April 2024 estimated payments and tax returns,” he said. “What that means is you’re going to lack real information on how we’re doing compared to [the] estimate until May of next year, 10 months into the fiscal year.”