But defeat of the override will seem like a spring shower compared to the hurricane-sized threat posed by a potential COVID-caused loss of $800,000 to $1 million in state aid. A report released Monday, May 18, by the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation estimates that fiscal 2021 state tax revenues could fall by $6 billion, or 19.3%, from a January 2020 forecast, due to loss of revenue caused by the shutdown of state businesses and rising unemployment.