Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation President Doug Howgate described the dynamic in his written testimony by noting the “headwinds are unnerving and plentiful,” including the potential for a global recession, the war between Russia and Ukraine, inflation, the continued presence of COVID-19 and whether Congress is able to adjust the debt ceiling.

Howgate did not include revenues from the new surtax in his projection, saying there were still too many unknowns about the new tax. He recommended the state split the money from the tax into two trust funds — one for education and one for transportation — and that the amount of surtax money spent in the fiscal 2024 budget be capped at $500 million. He said building up a stockpile of that money to spend in future years guards against economic uncertainty.