Doug Howgate, the president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, said he projects that fiscal year 2024 state revenues will come in at $40.06 billion, an increase of $366 million or about 1 percent over fiscal 2023.

“There are numerous cross-currents that affect the forecast, including healthy withholding and sales tax revenues offset by significant declines in non-withholding revenues due to reduced capital gains taxes and $1.5 billion in state paybacks due to pass-through entities,” MTF wrote in prepared remarks. “It should not surprise that this forecast comes with several caveats.”

MTF’s estimate does not include any revenue from the state’s new surtax on household income above $1 million. Howgate added, “FY 2023 and FY 2024 present unique challenges for a reliable estimate given the unknowns surrounding surtax revenues.”